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As you’ve probably noticed here lately, I have been doing a lot of analyses of my own personal finances and investing strategy. In the course of these analyses, I have been re-reviewing some of the books that helped me formulate my passive investing strategy several years ago.
One fascinating topic of analysis that I wanted to take a look at in today’s post is an answer to the following question – “What is the best international equity allocation level one should use in their portfolio?” Well – let’s investigate this further!
In my opinion, adding the international equity asset class is the 3rd most important decision one makes in putting together their investment portfolio (right after #1 – choosing passive investing over the loser’s game of active management and #2 – deciding your overall equity/fixed income asset allocation based on your personal risk tolerance and investing horizon).
So, why is the addition of international equity such an important step to constructing a portfolio?
Essentially, it all comes down to correlation and diversification. Since international equity, US domestic equity, and fixed income portfolio components all move up and down in different ways/magnitudes, you get a diversification benefit by including them in your portfolio.
In simpler terms, this means that by adding international stocks, you get a higher overall portfolio return at a lower volatility/risk level (sometimes called efficient frontier). This is perhaps the most exciting and interesting thing to me regarding portfolio construction!
Note: In everything that I read, the over-riding theme was that you should only pick an international equity allocation that you can live with. If you choose the most efficient allocation in the world but cannot stick with it in good times and bad, it defeats the entire purpose.
Conclusion from the literature – From the books written by the three authors above (some of the best on asset allocation I have found to date), it seems that the optimal allocation for international equities is between 30-40% of total equity holdings, with 40% likely being the “most efficient” single point.
Having taken a look at the advice given in the literature about the best levels in which to hold international equities in one’s asset allocation, I then wanted to do some of my own analysis and number crunching to see how things looked for myself over a time scale I could control.
To do this, I went to Yahoo Finance (the site where I always get my historical pricing data) and downloaded the historical price information for the 4 Vanguard mutual funds shown below:
Whenever I do these types of back-test analyses, I generally like to pick the longest time period I can get access to. In this case, the historical pricing data only went by 16.75 years, to 1996. Therefore, the time period I chose for the analysis was 1996-2013 (present).
First, I wanted to analyze the pure fluctuations/growth of the individual mutual funds (1-component portfolios) over the time period. To do this, I simulated the growth of a $10,000 initial investment in 1996 in each of these funds.
The graph below shows the overall results, where the blue line = Vanguard Total US Stock Market Index Fund, the red line = Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index Fund, the green line = Vanguard Total International Index Fund, and the light blue line = Vanguard Emerging Markets Index Fund.
To add some definite numbers to the performance of the 1-component portfolios shown in the chart above, I generated the table below, displaying year-to-year, month-to-month, and total return data for the 1996-2013 holding period.
The chart and table above shows us some interesting findings.
While examining the “personality” of an asset class in the isolation of a 1-component portfolio is interesting, an even more important thing to look at is how the fund will perform when mixed in as part of an investor’s real life asset allocation.
To investigate this activity, I simulated the growth of the same $10,000 initial investment from 1996-2013 (present) using a 70% equity / 30% fixed income overall asset allocation portfolio. The 30% fixed income portion consisted solely of the Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index Fund mentioned previously, while the 70% equity allocation was split up employing varying levels of international equity (Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund) holdings, from 0-60% of total equity position, along with using the Vanguard Total US Stock Market Index Fund for the domestic equity allocation..
The return data for the growth of the $10,000 initial investment from 1996-2013 utilizing various levels of international equity can be seen in the table below:
However, even though the average annual return decreases across the board as we increase our international equity exposure, we are getting the diversification benefit because the volatility/standard deviation is definitely decreasing as well.
Lastly, if we look at the far right column of the table above (the inverse of the return/risk curve slope), we see that the largest numbers occur between 10-30% international equity levels. What this means in plain English is that we get the largest decrease in volatility per unit decrease in return between 0-30% international equity. This is definitely the area where we would want to have been during this period. Having more international equity would have given us more decrease in return than decrease in risk.
Conclusion from 3-Component Portfolio, 1996-2013 Holding Period – From this specific analysis, we saw that the most efficient international equity allocation was a meager 10% of your total equity position, much less than the 40% being touted by the literature as being the most efficient point. However, we also saw that having any amount of international equity decreased volatility at the same time as decreasing return, with 10-30% international allocation featuring the greatest decrease in risk (being in this range wouldn’t be the most terrible thing ever!).
Truthfully, I was a little shocked at the results above.
After all, a 10% international equity maximum efficiency is quite a bit than the 40% point that was found by the literature! This got me thinking that either a) the 17 year time period I used was not long enough to capture history in a representative way or b) my calculations are off.
In order to investigate the situation further, I decided to expand the years of my analysis to the time period of 1972-2011, since these were the years covered by Simba’s return data spreadsheet from the Bogleheads forum.
I then modeled the average annual returns during this ~40 year time period of the same 70/30 equity-fixed income allocation portfolio mentioned above at varying levels of international equity exposure (0-60%, as a % of the total equity position). In order to meld the analysis to the data available in the spreadsheet, the 3-components held in the portfolio were the Total US Stock Market (domestic equity position), Total International Market (international equity position), and the Short-Term Treasury Fund (fixed income position).
Shown below is a graph plotting the annual return (y-axis) vs. the risk/volatility/standard deviation (x-axis) at varying levels of international equity exposure, from 0-60% of the total equity holding position. Also pasted below is the table with the data that the graph was constructed from.
In my humble opinion, the graph and data shown above would fall in to what I would call the “beautiful” category. What I mean by this is that it is a textbook example of the magic of diversification and portfolio construction / asset allocation.
Let’s walk through it. Start off at the bottom of the curve, which corresponds to a portfolio having an equity position consisting of 0% international stocks. As we increase the international equity to 10-30% (each point/plot on the graph represents 10% more international equity), we see something amazing – volatility decreases, but average return increases! Pretty sweet, right?!
In fact, the standard deviation of the portfolio does not start increasing back to what it was when we just had US domestic equity until an international equity allocation of 40%! In terms of the maximum return/risk ratio, this data indicates that the most efficient point is when international stocks = 30% of total equity holdings. However, it is also significant to note that if you can tolerate more risk, you would have obtained a higher return with an even greater (40-50%) international allocation level.
If you’re interested in looking through all of the details/numbers of this analysis, you can access the Google Docs spreadsheet by clicking here.
Conclusion from 3-Component Portfolio, 1972-2011 Holding Period – 30% international equity as a percentage of total equity holdings was found to be the most efficient in terms of highest return with lowest risk.
So, after going through all of this investigation comparing varying levels of international equity, what’s the overall verdict? Well, I think it can be summed up in a couple of key-points:
How about you all? What % of your portfolio’s total equity position is invested in international stocks/funds?
Have the movements in the international markets ever caused you to be alarmed/change your strategy, or did you not have that much trouble keeping a long term focus?
Share your experiences by commenting below!
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Welcome to My Personal Finance Journey! If you are new here, please read the “About” or “First-Time Visitor” pages to find out more about us. If you would like to receive free updates on articles like this by email, then sign up here or you can subscribe to the RSS feed. Also, check us out on Twitter or Facebook. Thanks for visiting! Keep on learning!
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Click here to enter my free $50.53 giveaway for a chance to win 5% of My Personal Finance Journey blog income and give another 5% to a charity of your choosing! Deadline to enter is April 30th, 2013.
Today, in the ongoing Reader Profile Series, we’re getting to know reader and insightful commenter, Greg, from the site, ThriftGenuity. Let’s all give Greg a big round of applause and welcome for sharing his life with us and listen to his story. Enjoy!
Also, if you’re interested in sharing your own financial story/journey with us in a reader profile of your own, just shoot me a quick email, and we can get the ball rolling!
***Photo courtesy of http://thriftgenuity.com/roedyblog/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/GR-e1361912788835.jpg
The following post is by MPFJ staff writer Travis. Travis is a customer blogger for Care One Debt Relief Services, and also appears weekly at Enemy of Debt. Travis candidly shares his personal journey to pay off $109,000 of credit card debt and the tips he’s learned along the way. As a father and husband he provides a unique perspective on balancing debt, finances, and family.
A few months ago, a Costco opened up near my home. My wife and I checked it out as guests of some friends who had purchased a membership. I was skeptical of even going, as I haven’t been a fan of buying in bulk for the following reasons:
On the other hand, as we walked around the store, I saw many great products. I also saw products that we normally use in bulk sizes. I remembered a comment on a different blog post about club store shopping that suggested making a monthly trip to the store, purchasing items in bulk once a month, then filling in other things around it as needed from a “regular” grocery store.
Before unleashing my checkbook on a Costco membership and products, I wanted to ensure that buying products at Costco that we actually use will save us money. I spent time walking through both Costco and a Super Walmart, where we usually purchase the bulk of our groceries, comparing prices to find out which of the products my family uses would be worth purchasing at Costco.
The following is just a sample of the comparative data of commonly used products from both stores:
Orville Redenbachers Smart Pop 94% fat free microwave popcorn:
Costco: $10.99 for 40 packages (27.5 cents per bag)
Walmart: $5.18 for 10 packages (51.8 cents per bag)
Skippy Creamy Peanut Butter:
Walmart: $4.08 for a 28oz jar (14.6 cents per ounce)
Bounty Paper Towels:
Costco: $19.99 for 12 Jumbo Rolls (23 cents per square foot)
Walmart: $ 9.97 for 6 Super Rolls (39 cents per square foot)
Hamburger:
Costco: $14.95 for 5lbs of 88/12 ($2.95 per pound)
Walmart: $ 4.28 for one pound of 90/10 ($4.28 per pound)
Soda:
Costco: $5.99 for a 24 pack ($5.99 per 24 pack)
Walmart: $6.48 for a 24 pack ($6.48 for a 24 pack)
Red Grapes:
Costco: $9.92 for 4 pounds ($2.48 per pound)
Walmart: Varies ($2.48 per pound)
Products purchased by household will vary, but I didn’t find many products that I would have an expiration problem with. For example, with the hamburger, I would separate it into five 1-pound packages, put into freezer bags, and freeze them. I would have a concern about the peanut butter, as I’m not sure we would use that much peanut butter before the second jar would go bad. This may be a good opportunity to split the cost with a neighbor, each taking one of the gigantic jars.
I found that Costco carried many products that I normally cannot find at Walmart, such as a wide selection of non-frozen seafood. However, I also found that Costco did NOT carry some products that we use every week. For example, the frozen pizza selection at Costco was horrible. For that item alone, we would have to make a weekly trip to Walmart or some other store to pick up frozen pizza.
While shopping at Costco looks to be able to save us quite a bit of money, the biggest obstacle will be coming up with the funds for what will likely be a large and quite expensive monthly shopping trip.
How about you, readers, do you shop at Costco or another club store? How often during the month do you shop there, and how do you budget for an expensive shopping trip?
Share your experiences by commenting below!
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Welcome to My Personal Finance Journey! If you are new here, please read the “About” or “First-Time Visitor” pages to find out more about us. If you would like to receive free updates on articles like this by email, then sign up here or you can subscribe to the RSS feed. Also, check us out on Twitter or Facebook. Thanks for visiting! Keep on learning!
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Click here to enter my free $50.53 giveaway for a chance to win 5% of My Personal Finance Journey blog income and give another 5% to a charity of your choosing! Deadline to enter is April 30th, 2013.
The following is a guest post. Enjoy!
How about you all? Have you ever been issued/sent a speeding ticket or other traffic violation from one of these automatic traffic cameras?
If so, did you think about trying to appeal the decision?
Share your experiences by commenting below!
Jacob’s Thoughts – Listed below are my random thoughts as I was reading this article.
***Photo courtesy of http://www.flickr.com/photos/wwworks/4426610518/sizes/l/in/photostream/
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Welcome to My Personal Finance Journey! If you are new here, please read the “About” or “First-Time Visitor” pages to find out more about us. If you would like to receive free updates on articles like this by email, then sign up here or you can subscribe to the RSS feed. Also, check us out on Twitter or Facebook. Thanks for visiting! Keep on learning!
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Click here to enter my free $50.53 giveaway for a chance to win 5% of My Personal Finance Journey blog income and give another 5% to a charity of your choosing! Deadline to enter is April 30th, 2013.
How about you all? What techniques and/or tools have you used to teach your children about money?
What are your thoughts in general about Dave Ramsey’s advice? Do you mostly agree or disagree with his messages?
Share your experiences by commenting below!
***Photo courtesy of Amazon.com
The following is a guest post. Enjoy!
How about you all? Have you ever filed a personal injury claim against someone else (or had one filed against you)?
If so, how did the process go? Did you end up having to take the case to court?
Share your experiences by commenting below!
Jacob’s Thoughts – Listed below are my random thoughts as I was reading this article.
***Photo courtesy of http://www.flickr.com/photos/armymedicine/6937977092/sizes/o/in/photostream/
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Welcome to My Personal Finance Journey! If you are new here, please read the “About” or “First-Time Visitor” pages to find out more about us. If you would like to receive free updates on articles like this by email, then sign up here or you can subscribe to the RSS feed. Also, check us out on Twitter or Facebook. Thanks for visiting! Keep on learning!
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Click here to enter my free $50.53 giveaway for a chance to win 5% of My Personal Finance Journey blog income and give another 5% to a charity of your choosing! Deadline to enter is April 30th, 2013.
As I discussed in a post last week where I analyzed intermediate- and long- vs. short-term bonds, I determined that the stability that short-term bond offered made them better suited for my personal investment needs. This was my conclusion in spite of the significant finding that intermediate-term bonds are in fact more efficient in terms of the risk-adjusted return provided.
Having determined that short-term bond funds are best suited for my needs, the question then becomes, “What is the best specific type of short-term bond fund for my needs?”
Seeking out an answer to this question will be the topic of today’s post. Let’s get started!
Since my experience has shown that no one is able to consistently beat Vanguard when it comes to low-cost investing, I will focus my screening to the funds that Vanguard offers.
A quick search through the Vanguard database reveals the following short-term maturity bond mutual funds on offer (all credit qualities shown):
Since the purpose of my fixed income asset allocation is STABILITY, I am not interested in holding anything but the highest credit quality bonds. This restriction removes the Short-Term Investment Grade fund from the list of eligible options, leaving the 5 options shown below:
In my experience, a highly valuable, yet often overlooked type of analysis is to simply read IN DETAIL about what a mutual fund actually holds. It’s so simple because this information is freely available from the fund provider’s website and/or fund prospectus, yet often, I’ve found investors (I am even guilty of this I admit) don’t take the time to really understand a mutual fund before investing in it.
As such, listed below is a look inside each of the short-term bond fund options:
Just by reading through this information, there are a couple potential red flags (highlighted in red text above) in the structure of the Short-Term Federal and Short-Term Tax Exempt Funds that could make these unattractive to me.
Having taken a look at the advice given in the literature about which type of short-term bonds to hold in one’s fixed income allocation, I then wanted to do some of my own analysis and number crunching to see how things looked for myself over a time scale I could control.
To do this, I went to Yahoo Finance (the site where I always get my historical pricing data) and downloaded the historical price information for the five Vanguard bond mutual funds investigated above.
Whenever I do these types of back-test analyses, I generally like to pick the longest time period I can get access to. In this case, the historical pricing data only went by 16.75 years, to 1996. Therefore, the time period I chose for the analysis was 1996-2013 (present).
First, I wanted to analyze the pure fluctuations/growth of the individual mutual funds (1-component portfolios) over the time period. To do this, I simulated the growth of a $10,000 initial investment in 1996 in each of these funds.
The graph below shows the overall results, where the dark blue line = Vanguard Short-Term Treasury Fund, the red line = Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index Fund, the green line = Vanguard Short-Term Federal Fund, the purple line = Vanguard Short-Term Tax Exempt Fund, and the light blue line = Vanguard Limited-Term Tax Exempt Fund.
Just by inspecting the graph above, there are a couple interesting observations that can be seen:
While examining the “personality” of an asset class in the isolation of a 1-component portfolio is interesting, an even more important thing to look at is how the fund will perform when mixed in as part of an investor’s real life asset allocation.
To investigate this activity, I simulated the growth of the same $10,000 initial investment from 1996-2013 (present) using a 70% Vanguard S&P500 Index Fund equity allocation and 30% fixed income allocation utilizing either of the 5 Vanguard Short-Term Bond Funds mentioned above.
The growth of the $10,000 initial investment in the various 70/30 2-component equity/fixed income portfolios can be seen in the graph below, where the dark blue line = using the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury Fund, the red line = using the Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index Fund, the green line = using the Vanguard Short-Term Federal Fund, the purple line = using the Vanguard Short-Term Tax Exempt Fund, and the light blue line = using the Vanguard Limited-Term Tax Exempt Fund. For reference, I have also included the growth that would have occurred if the Vanguard S&P500 Index Fund was used by itself (100% equity, no fixed income – orange line).
Although this graph is somewhat “pretty” to look at, I’m afraid it doesn’t tell us all that much, with the exception that incorporating the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury, Bond Index, and Federal Fund essentially results in the same performance over the time period utilizing a 70/30% equity/fixed income asset allocation.
In this case, I think that looking at the return data during this 17 year time period provides a much more interesting perspective (shown in table below).
Indeed, when we inspect the data in the table above, we see that there is really not that much of a difference between utilizing the three nominal (non tax-exempt) Vanguard bond funds for the fixed income portion of your portfolio. Essentially, this tells us that any of these choices would be fine, and that it is just up to personal preference.
As expected from the 1-component analysis previously, utilizing the Short-Term Bond Index in a 70/30 asset allocation portfolio yields on marginally higher average annual return, but in fact gives the same overall return as using the Short-Term Federal Fund.
It is also quite interesting to see that incorporating the Short-Term Federal Fund yields 1.3% decrease in risk/standard deviation, but only at the cost of a 0.26% decrease in average annual return. What this indicates is that the Short-Term Federal Fund is slightly less correlated with the returns of the S&P500 than the Short-Term Bond Index Fund. This possibly could stem from the fact that the Short Term Bond Index Fund holds 20% corporate bonds, which would likely be more highly correlated with the performance of corporate equity (i.e. the S&P500).
Conclusion from 2-Component Portfolios – From the 2-component portfolio analysis above, we see that there is not a HUGE difference between utilizing any of the three nominal Vanguard bond funds for your fixed income allocation (decision would likely come down to personal preference). However, it was found that the most efficient tool at providing the highest risk-adjusted return was the Short-Term Federal Fund.
Note: If you want to view all of the details of the calculations I used for the 1 and 2 component portfolio back tests, click here to download a copy of the Google Docs Spreadsheet.
Thus far, I have somewhat ignored the use of tax-exempt bond funds because of their lower pre-tax returns compared to the 3 nominal bond funds. Indeed, for investors that are focusing on their tax-sheltered accounts, there is no reason to invest in tax-exempt bond funds.
However, the decision is not so simple for investors that are placing money in their after-tax accounts since you need to take in to consideration your current tax bracket.
While this is a good rule of thumb, let’s see how it stacks up with our numbers from the 1-component portfolio analysis above:
As we can clearly see here, the general rule of thumb mentioned above was indeed correct. Taxable fixed income money should be invested in the Limited-Term Tax Exempt (Municipal) Bond Fund unless an investor (like I am) is in the lowest, 15% tax bracket.
For investors like me with low income, I am better off investing in nominal bond funds in my taxable account (at least for the time being until my income goes up after graduate school).
So, after going through all of this investigation comparing 5 short-term bond options, what’s the overall verdict? Well, I think it can be summed up in a couple lines:
How about you all? Do you prefer to invest in US Treasury, US Agency, mortgage-backed, or corporate fixed income securities?
Do you utilize tax-exempt bonds in your taxable account fixed income allocation?
Share your experiences by commenting below!
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Welcome to My Personal Finance Journey! If you are new here, please read the “About” or “First-Time Visitor” pages to find out more about us. If you would like to receive free updates on articles like this by email, then sign up here or you can subscribe to the RSS feed. Also, check us out on Twitter or Facebook. Thanks for visiting! Keep on learning!
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Click here to enter my free $50.53 giveaway for a chance to win 5% of My Personal Finance Journey blog income and give another 5% to a charity of your choosing! Deadline to enter is April 30th, 2013.
The following is a guest post by Kevin Watts, the creator of the blog, Graduating from Debt. Enjoy!
It is important to be completely aware of your lenders, loan balance, and current repayment status for your loans. These relevant pieces of information will give you an idea about your existing options when it comes to loan forgiveness and repayment. If you are uncertain about these details, then the best thing to do is to inquire from your lender.
By doing so, you will learn more about the status of your federal loans. Additionally, you may want to review your most current billing statement, as well as the original documents that you have signed. In case you are unable to locate these documents, you may consult your school for a backup of these records.
You should understand that each loan has its own grace period, which pertains to the waiting time before you can make your initial payment. For Stafford federal loans, the grace period is typically six months, while it is zero months for Perkins federal loans. If you have an existing PLUS loan (federal), then the grace period depends on the date when the loan was issued.
Regardless of the grace period for your student loans, make it a point to pay on time to avoid late charges. Moreover, you should never fail to inform your lender when you have changed your mailing address or contact details since all mails about your loans may be sent to an incorrect address, and this can cause you a huge problem. In fact, ignoring all bills can lead to a default, which can lead to severe and long-term consequences on your financial situation.
When you have a federal loan that is already due, the payment will be based on the 10-year standard loan repayment scheme. For some people, the standard plan is barely reasonable, so they consider other repayment options that will be more practical for them. Furthermore, you may want to change the plan entirely when necessary.
While extending the repayment period to up to 10 years may result to more affordable monthly fees, you are likely to pay more interest costs throughout the duration of your loan. Hence, you may choose another option, such as an income-based plan, that will cap the monthly payments at a percentage of your annual income. This repayment program will also forgive any debts that are remaining after the 25 years of loan payments.
However, loan forgiveness may only be available when you have incurred at least 10 years of loan payments, as long as you are employed in a non-profit or public sector. It is also worth mentioning that private loans for students do not qualify for other deferments, forgiveness, forbearance programs, and payment plans available for federal loans.
Nevertheless, private lenders may offer their clients a type of forbearance that comes with a fee. With this in mind, it is best to inquire from your lender, so you can learn more about your repayment options.
If you decide to make a payment for your federal student loan, the amount covers any incurred late fees, interest costs, and the principal. When you have the means of paying more than the required monthly fee, you can massively reduce your principal while minimizing the interest costs of your loan.
You may prepare a written request or notification to your lender, so you can make sure that the additional amount is applied immediately to your loan principal.Then, keep all paperwork for your records, and review them to ensure that the overpayment has reflected on your account.
In case you wish to pay off your loans before the due date, then you should consider settling the fees for the one with the most expensive interest rate. You should also begin paying off your private loans followed by your federal loans, since the former have higher rates and do not come with a flexible repayment scheme.
With these practical tips, you can keep your debts in control while making sure that no loan remains unpaid during the designated repayment schedule.
How about you all? What about student loans do you wish that you knew back when you were a student that you have learned “the hard way?”
Did you take advantage of any of the tips mentioned above in this post during your student loan payoff?
Share your experiences by commenting below!
***Photo courtesy of http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/43/Cambrian_Student.jpg
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Welcome to My Personal Finance Journey! If you are new here, please read the “About” or “First-Time Visitor” pages to find out more about us. If you would like to receive free updates on articles like this by email, then sign up here or you can subscribe to the RSS feed. Also, check us out on Twitter or Facebook. Thanks for visiting! Keep on learning!
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Click here to enter my free $50.53 giveaway for a chance to win 5% of My Personal Finance Journey blog income and give another 5% to a charity of your choosing! Deadline to enter is April 30th, 2013.
How about you all? What strategies have you used to pay off debt? Did you try debt consolidation or debt management programs, or did you simply bite the bullet and buckle down to pay off the debt?
Share your experiences by commenting below!
Jacob’s Thoughts – Listed below are my random thoughts as I was reading this article.
***Photo courtesy of http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1e/Women_in_Economic_Decision-making_Christine_Lagarde_(8414041294).jpg
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Welcome to My Personal Finance Journey! If you are new here, please read the “About” or “First-Time Visitor” pages to find out more about us. If you would like to receive free updates on articles like this by email, then sign up here or you can subscribe to the RSS feed. Also, check us out on Twitter or Facebook. Thanks for visiting! Keep on learning!
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For the past few years since finishing college, I have been somewhat bad in regard that I have been aggressively, but blindly, saving for the future/retirement.
What I mean by this is that I have been so focused on the input of saving money for retirement that I forgot to consider how the output would be affected when I went to withdraw those funds.
However, the good news is that the past month, I have been doing a lot of analysis of my current investment allocation location, learning about the withdrawal treatment rules of the accounts in which my funds are in, as well as learning about new options available to me to improve location distribution of my assets.
Going along with this effort to learn more about optimized location distribution of my retirement investments, I recently read the book, The New Three-Legged Stool: A Tax-Efficient Approach to Retirement Planning, by CFP and retirement planning specialist, Rick Rodgers.
If this is the first time you are hearing about the NEW Three-Legged Stool for Retirement (the old Three-Legged Stool, which consisted of Social Security and Pensions is no longer relevant, so we’ll ignore that for now), it is a retirement planning concept that employs utilizing ALL three different types of investment accounts/locations (based on their tax treatment) shown below, in an effort to more efficiently prepare yourself financially for retirement:
Rodgers introduces a concept called the R/D Factor as a way to take withdrawals from these different accounts during retirement in a tax-efficient manner. In a nutshell, he advises that an efficient way to fund your retirement is to:
I really liked the idea behind this because in my experience, it’s always nice to have various options available to you when it comes to finances because you never know what the future will bring with tax law changes, etc.
However, one important question that was not expressly covered in the book is, “When you are saving for retirement, how much of your investments should be distributed in tax-free, after tax/taxable, and tax-deferred accounts, respectively?”
In searching around the Internet and reading through several of the investing strategy books I have accumulated the past few years, it seems that detailed guidance to this question is quite hard to find, although there was some good loose guidance on one Bogleheads thread I read based on other people’s asset distribution.
In an effort to seek out some sort of answer to this question, I emailed Rick Rodgers directly. Essentially, what he recommends for his clients varies on a person-to-person basis. However, the distribution decision is generally based on the person’s marginal tax bracket being at or above the 25% cutoff, or if it is lower. If you’re not sure about what the tax brackets look like based on taxable income levels (note this is different than gross income or Adjusted Gross Income), take a look at this really good page that Mike Piper over at Oblivious Investor put together – Tax Brackets 2013.
To give us a starting point, listed below are the base/lowest taxable incomes that would qualify someone to start having to pay 25% income taxes, split up based on filing status. If you can get your taxable income $1 below these amounts, you will be in the the 15% tax bracket, so a pretty nice decrease!
From here, let’s dig a little deeper to try to develop some real-life guidelines for how this rule of thumb would affect asset location distribution between the three “legs” discussed above:
The first possibility that we run in to in developing a set of working asset distribution guidelines is the case where someone is ABSOLUTELY certain that he or she will be in the 15% or lower marginal tax bracket.
To illustrate this situation with a few possible scenarios, this could be someone who files singly and only makes $35,000 per year in GROSS income, or if a young married couple was filing jointly and only one member of the family worked at a starting job out of college that earned $60,000 per year.
In this case, since you are in perhaps lowest tax bracket, you want to take advantage of the situation and pay taxes now instead of paying them during retirement. In Three-Legged Stool retirement language, you would want to emphasize tax-free and after-tax/taxable accounts.
To execute upon this strategy if I knew I was going to be in the 15% or lower tax bracket no matter what, I would take the following approach:
On the opposite end of the spectrum from the group of folks discussed above, we need to develop some general guidelines for higher-income earners that, despite the introduction of any amount of deductions they can reasonable execute, cannot reduce their overall taxable income below the 25% tax bracket income limits.
In this case, since you are in a medium-to-high tax bracket, you want to take advantage of the situation by deferring the payment of taxes until later when you can give yourself a chance at being in a lower tax bracket. In Three-Legged Stool retirement language, you would want to max out tax-deferred accounts and only start contributing excess amounts to after-tax and tax-free accounts once your tax-deferral options have been satisfied.
To execute upon this strategy if I knew I was going to be in the 25% or higher tax bracket no matter what, I would take the following approach:
In between the two groups discussed above of higher income earners (definitely in the 25% tax bracket or above) and earners in the 10-15% tax bracket, we have a fascinating group that is sort of “on a fiscal fence.” What makes them special is that they are looking at a significant decrease in taxes if they can get to their taxable income decreased slightly (through tax deductions) to the realm of the 15% tax bracket.
In terms of the investment accounts we’re discussing here, I will estimate that being “within reach” of the 15% tax bracket is having a currently-estimated taxable income of $5,000-$10,000 more than the income limits described above for the break between tax brackets (so $36,251 + $5-10k for single filers and $72,501 + $5-10k for joint filers).
In this case, since you are within striking distance of entering the lowest tax bracket, you want to take advantage of the situation reduce your taxable income so you qualify for the lower tax level! In Three-Legged Stool retirement language, you would want to first emphasize tax-deferred accounts until you enter the 15% tax bracket, then switch to focusing solely on tax-free and after-tax/taxable accounts for the rest of the year.
To execute upon this strategy if I knew I was within reach of the 15% tax bracket, I would take the following approach:
In an ideal world, investors would naturally pass through the different tax bracket stages discussed above as they progress in their career.
For example, a 22 year old that has just graduated from college and beginning their career will likely have a lower income. Thus, this person would focus their investing during their 20’s in tax-free Roth and after-tax accounts. Then, when they are older and their income has gone up, they will scale back their tax-free investing to focus on building their tax-deferred base, throwing their remaining savings in to taxable accounts. The goal of this flow is to allow the tax-free/taxable accounts to compound longer to give them a chance to naturally be on par with the tax-deferred asset base. In this way, you naturally achieve the target 1/3 / 1/3 / 1/3 split of your assets among the three account types by the time you hit retirement.
This is how the Three-Legged Stool approach would work in an ideal world.
However, in the real world, I don’t think it often happens that way. People make mistakes, perhaps investing too heavily in tax-deferred accounts (or not saving/investing any money at all because funds are tight and they are not wise with finances yet) in their early, low income days. Before you know it, you have been working for 10 years and are making over $100,000 per year. What happens then? Do you just forget about having any tax-free income during retirement because you missed your window at a lower tax bracket when you are younger to focus solely on tax-deferred investing?
Because mistakes are a part of life, there is likely to be a very unbalanced Three-Legged Stool if you aren’t proactive in monitoring your asset distribution levels.
Since there are no set % guidelines for what your specific distribution should look like prior to retirement, you will have to use some person discretion here. However, I honestly believe that people are intelligent, and simply by actively calculating your distribution each year or month, you will be able to gauge whether corrective actions need to be taken so that you gain a more ideal distribution for retirement.
To illustrate how this tracking/corrective action process would potentially work, let’s consider a fictional 40 year old man named Bob. In the early part of his career, Bob was not very fiscally responsible with saving money in a Roth IRA and/or taxable accounts to take advantage of his low tax bracket.
He now makes $150,000 per year, putting him above the 15% tax bracket. In calculating his investment distribution among the three Legs, he sees that he has the following breakdown of assets: 5% in tax-free accounts, 40% in after-tax accounts, and 55% in tax-deferred accounts. From the investment distribution rules set forth above for people above the 15% tax bracket, Bob should technically be focusing his current investing in tax-deferred accounts. However, since he has such an imbalance in that his tax-free accounts are so low compared to the others, he would want to sacrifice some current tax savings to execute a backdoor Roth IRA conversion contribution in order for him to have some tax-free income to tap during retirement.
Overall, just be sure to remember that you should be getting closer and closer to achieving a 1/3 balance between all three legs as you get within say 3-5 years or so of retirement age!
As I mentioned above and previous posts, regardless of if you’re in a high or low current tax bracket, you don’t want to go too crazy contributing to retirement accounts (where the money is locked up until you reach 59.5 years old) unless you feel comfortable you have enough money saved up in after-tax accounts first. This would be money that could be accessible if an emergency, planned expense, or other opportunity came up in the future.
In short, don’t underestimate the power of having accessible money when putting together your Three-Legged Stool.
Truthfully, I was quite surprised when I calculated these percentages since even though there is some imbalance, I have pretty good representation in all three Legs. However, as I suspected/mentioned in my post about blindly saving for retirement, it does appear that the tax-deferred (401k/rollover IRA) bucket is the largest percentage of the three.
Nevertheless, it is clear in looking at these percentages that I have some room to improve in building up the tax-free account while I am in graduate school and WELL inside the 15% tax bracket, as I shared in my 2012 taxes review post the other day where I calculated that I only paid 14.6% of my overall income total taxes last year.
In an attempt to figure out a path forward for me, let’s take a look at the action steps I listed out for folks in the 15% tax bracket above:
How about you all? Approximately what percentage of your investments are currently held in tax-free, after-tax, and tax-deferred accounts?
Do you think that you will be able to reach the 33% 3-way split target recommended by the time you reach retirement between the three Legs?
Share your experiences by commenting below!
***Photo courtesy of http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/09/Liberty_-_Stool_Thebes_-_1884.jpg